Coming into the 2024 Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be at a disadvantage, with the northern state showing signs of anti-incumbency, signs that have been seemingly solidified by intial exit polls on Saturday.
Multiple exit polls released the evening after voting in Haryana predict the Congress seizing back power in the state, with the national party likely to win 55-62 seats in the 90-member assembly, at least nine seats clear of the majority mark. Meanwhile, the BJP is predicted to pick up 18-24 seats, a sharp drop from the 40 it won five years ago.
In the previous assembly polls in 2019, the Congress won 31 seats and JJP 10, forming an alliance with the BJP to govern the state.
The Congress has left the Bhiwani assembly seat for its INDIA bloc partner CPI(M) while the BJP is not contesting the Sirsa seat, from where Haryana Lokhit Party chief Gopal Kanda is seeking re-election.
Most seats are likely to see a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. Prominent among those in fray include Chief Minister Saini (Ladwa), Leader of Opposition Hooda (Garhi Sampla-Kiloi), INLD's Abhay Singh Chautala (Ellenabad), JJP's Dushyant Chautala (Uchana Kalan), BJP's Anil Vij (Ambala Cantt), Capt Abhimanyu (Narnaund) and O P Dhankar (Badli), AAP's Anurag Dhanda (Kalayat) and Congress's Vinesh Phogat (Julana).
What do these results mean?
Exit poll predictions indicate that the Congress will likely come back to power in Haryana after a decade spent in the Opposition end, which will mean that the Congress will have wrested another state away from the saffron party, having recently won in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh.
The Congress-led INDIA bloc is now likely to have four states versus the BJP's 12 states - the saffron party's win in Odisha earlier this year has ensured that their net loss is zero - but the Congress looks to be gaining ground in preparation for the next general elections to be held in 2029.
Additionally, another state in the INDIA bloc's kitty is likely to spell trouble for the BJP, which is holding onto power at the Centre via a coalition government with the Telugu Desam Party, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and the Janata Dal (United).
The general election, held earlier in 2024, saw the BJP win only 240 seats, a 63 seat drop from 2019, while the Congress alone won 99 seats, a 47 seat jump from the last elections. The saffron party managed to keep its pre-poll coalition together, with regional parties adding 53 seats and helping the NDA form a government. On the other end, the INDIA bloc sat pretty with 234 seats, with the Congress becoming the main Opposition in the Lok Sabha.
Where does the Congress stand?
With the Congress in power in Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh, as well as in alliances in Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Delhi, the grand old party has regained footing in the country, having looked down and out just five years ago, when it was convincingly defeated in the Lok Sabha elections, as well as in local elections.
Elections are yet to be held in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, there is still the possibility that the INDIA bloc could add another state to its kitty by dislodging the Eknath Shinde-led NDA government in the Maratha state.
What may have led to a potential BJP loss
Farmer protests
When the BJP introduced the controversial farm laws in 2020, farmers across the country were aggrieved, with many reaching the borders of the national capital in protest. With a majority of these farmers coming from Haryana and Punjab, the Singhu border between Delhi and Haryana became a flashpoint for the protests. During this period, the BJP government in the state became a key player in controlling the unrest.
The Haryana Police took several measures to prevent protests from spilling into the national capital, a move that has left a bad taste in the farmers' mouths and might contribute to a potential BJP downfall in the state.
Agniveer recruitment
Another contentious issue is the Agniveer recruitment scheme for the armed forces. While the government has attempted to pacify discontent by offering paramilitary and other government jobs, there remains widespread opposition to the initiative.
Wrestlers protests
The BJP's treatment of Vinesh Phogat - a vocal detractor of the saffron party - could also hurt the party's chances in the state, with the retired wrestler now contesting for the Congress, alongside Bajrang Punia. With wrestling culture deeply entrenched in the state, both athletes could end up making the needle move in favour of the INDIA bloc.
Multiple exit polls released the evening after voting in Haryana predict the Congress seizing back power in the state, with the national party likely to win 55-62 seats in the 90-member assembly, at least nine seats clear of the majority mark. Meanwhile, the BJP is predicted to pick up 18-24 seats, a sharp drop from the 40 it won five years ago.
In the previous assembly polls in 2019, the Congress won 31 seats and JJP 10, forming an alliance with the BJP to govern the state.
The Congress has left the Bhiwani assembly seat for its INDIA bloc partner CPI(M) while the BJP is not contesting the Sirsa seat, from where Haryana Lokhit Party chief Gopal Kanda is seeking re-election.
Most seats are likely to see a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. Prominent among those in fray include Chief Minister Saini (Ladwa), Leader of Opposition Hooda (Garhi Sampla-Kiloi), INLD's Abhay Singh Chautala (Ellenabad), JJP's Dushyant Chautala (Uchana Kalan), BJP's Anil Vij (Ambala Cantt), Capt Abhimanyu (Narnaund) and O P Dhankar (Badli), AAP's Anurag Dhanda (Kalayat) and Congress's Vinesh Phogat (Julana).
What do these results mean?
Exit poll predictions indicate that the Congress will likely come back to power in Haryana after a decade spent in the Opposition end, which will mean that the Congress will have wrested another state away from the saffron party, having recently won in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh.
The Congress-led INDIA bloc is now likely to have four states versus the BJP's 12 states - the saffron party's win in Odisha earlier this year has ensured that their net loss is zero - but the Congress looks to be gaining ground in preparation for the next general elections to be held in 2029.
Additionally, another state in the INDIA bloc's kitty is likely to spell trouble for the BJP, which is holding onto power at the Centre via a coalition government with the Telugu Desam Party, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and the Janata Dal (United).
The general election, held earlier in 2024, saw the BJP win only 240 seats, a 63 seat drop from 2019, while the Congress alone won 99 seats, a 47 seat jump from the last elections. The saffron party managed to keep its pre-poll coalition together, with regional parties adding 53 seats and helping the NDA form a government. On the other end, the INDIA bloc sat pretty with 234 seats, with the Congress becoming the main Opposition in the Lok Sabha.
Where does the Congress stand?
With the Congress in power in Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh, as well as in alliances in Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Delhi, the grand old party has regained footing in the country, having looked down and out just five years ago, when it was convincingly defeated in the Lok Sabha elections, as well as in local elections.
Elections are yet to be held in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, there is still the possibility that the INDIA bloc could add another state to its kitty by dislodging the Eknath Shinde-led NDA government in the Maratha state.
What may have led to a potential BJP loss
Farmer protests
When the BJP introduced the controversial farm laws in 2020, farmers across the country were aggrieved, with many reaching the borders of the national capital in protest. With a majority of these farmers coming from Haryana and Punjab, the Singhu border between Delhi and Haryana became a flashpoint for the protests. During this period, the BJP government in the state became a key player in controlling the unrest.
The Haryana Police took several measures to prevent protests from spilling into the national capital, a move that has left a bad taste in the farmers' mouths and might contribute to a potential BJP downfall in the state.
Agniveer recruitment
Another contentious issue is the Agniveer recruitment scheme for the armed forces. While the government has attempted to pacify discontent by offering paramilitary and other government jobs, there remains widespread opposition to the initiative.
Wrestlers protests
The BJP's treatment of Vinesh Phogat - a vocal detractor of the saffron party - could also hurt the party's chances in the state, with the retired wrestler now contesting for the Congress, alongside Bajrang Punia. With wrestling culture deeply entrenched in the state, both athletes could end up making the needle move in favour of the INDIA bloc.
You may also like
BJP Slams Congress Over Molestation Incident at Haryana Rally, Kumari Selja Demands Strict Action
DMK MP Wilson's conduct a threat to judicial impartiality and independence: BJP
PM Modi inaugurates Thane Ring Metro Project and Mumbai Metro Line 3
Rob Burrow's hybrid game is great for MND but code merger won't ever happen
