Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs - doomsday UK scenario and best outcome

admitted today it is likely that"Liberation Day" tariffs will hit the UK as No10 braces for the economic impact.

The PM said: "The likelihood is there will be tariffs. Nobody welcomes that. We are obviously working with the sectors most impacted at pace on that." He said no country wants to see a trade but insisted "all options remain on the table" in how the UK government responds to Washington's tariffs.

Mr Starmer added: "We are obviously working with the sectors most impacted at pace on that. Nobody wants to see a trade war but I have to act in the national interests." Speaking at a meeting of the Cabinet on Tuesday morning, the PM also told his top team he will not give "knee-jerk reaction" to any tariffs imposed by Trump.

Chancellor told colleagues global tariffs "will have an impact on the UK as an open trading economy" - but the impacts can be mitigated with a deal. Here The looks at how the next 24 hours could unfold.

What is Donald Trump threatening?

is preparing to unveil massive tariffs on worldwide goods entering the US on Wednesday - dubbed "Liberation Day" by the divisive US President.

Details are thin at the moment and is not clear when the levy on goods entering the UK will come into force but Trump has warned all countries will be impacted. Last week the White House announced a 25% tariff would be introduced on all cars imported to the US, a measure expected to hit British luxury car makers like Rolls-Royce.

The levy on cars is on top of a series of tariffs set to come into effect on April 2 that are expected to hit other industries.
The President's team has said Trump will announce his plans on Wednesday during a press conference in the Rose Garden of the White House.

Best case scenario

and Donald Trump have held frequent late-night calls in recent weeks and last discussed tariffs on Sunday evening. In the best case scenario, the PM's phone rings once again this evening with the US President backing down in threats of tariffs against its closest ally.

The UK government has been locked in talks with the US and Mr Starmer's spokesman said on Tuesday the discussions are at an "advanced stage". There are even suggestions the UK could, which hits US tech giants, in an attempt to carve out British goods from tariffs.

But Mr Starmer himself appears to be resigned to the fact that the "special relationship" will not protect the UK from Trump's tariffs. And even if a last-minute deal is reached, the UK economy will be hit by tariffs being imposed on neighbouring allies, including the .

Worst case scenario

The UK is immediately hit alongside other countries with tariffs of 20% on US imports.

This would wipe out the Chancellor Rachel Reeves's economic wriggle room she set out just last week at the Spring Statement and cause alarm bells to ring in Downing Street. While Keir Starmer has promised no "knee-jerk reaction" in retaliation (the have for example proposed hitting Elon Musk's Tesla business with tariffs) he may be forced to act if the White House ignore UK concerns.

The PM has not ruled out the prospect and repeatedly said no options are off the table.

But if Mr Starmer then imposes tariffs on US goods in return, it could easily spiral into a trade war, damaging firms on both sides of the Atlantic. The Office for Responsibility (OBR) has also suggested it would mean the UK's GDP would be 1% lower in the most "severe" scenario. This could result in the Chancellor being forced to rip up her plans and go for either more tax rises or spending cuts.

Most likely scenario

While Donald Trump's big announcement on tariffs is expected on Wednesday it is unclear when they will come into force.

Keir Starmer will be hoping there is a delay long enough to continue hammering out a deal with the President ahead of any deadline the White House gives. This appears to be the most likely scenario - or at least the one UK ministers seem to be hinting will happen as they tour the broadcast studios.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said on Tuesday morning: "We expect every country in the to be subject to what the US is calling World Tariff Day." But the Cabinet minister said he was hopeful any US tariffs will be reversed or mitigated and insisted the UK was in "the best possible position of any country".

Just last month the US President delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico - two days after imposing them - and leaders around the world will be hoping he follows a similar playbook in the coming weeks.

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