State pensioners await July 17 Triple Lock hint that may point to future payments

Nearly13 million State Pensioners across Great Britain should keep an eye on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate this month. That's because it plays a pivotal role in the Triple Lock measure that determines the annual increase state pensioners get in payments.

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that UK inflation dropped to 3.4 per cent in May, a slight dip from 3.5 per cent in April. The yearly growth in employees' average wagesfor regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was recorded at 5.6 per cent and total earnings (including bonuses) stood at 5.5 per cent.

Under the Triple Lock measure, State Pensions rise each year in line with whichever is the highest of average annual earnings growth from May to July, CPI in the year to September or 2.5 per cent. So at the moment, the earnings figure is the one that will decide payments - but of course things could change.

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In April, the New and Basic State Pension saw an increase of 4.7 per cent, meaning someone on the full New State Pension currently receives £230.25 per week, or £921 every four-week pay period.

Those on the full Basic State Pension receive £176.45 each week, or £705.80 every four-week pay period, reports the Daily Record.

State Pension uprating predictions for 2026/27

Looking ahead to the State Pension uprating predictions for 2026/27, the Triple Lock is currently set to be determined by the earnings growth element, which presently stands at 5.5 per cent. However, this figure may fluctuate and isn't the final metric that will determine the level of uprating.

The next CPI figure will be released by the ONS on July 17.

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A potential 5.5 per cent increase on the current State Pension could result in the following payouts:

Full New State Pension

• Weekly: £242.90
• Four-weekly pay period: £971.60
• Annual amount: £12,630.80

Full Basic State Pension

• Weekly: £186.25
• Four-weekly pay period: £744.60
• Annual amount: £9,679.80

The official annual uprating won't be confirmed until the Autumn Budget, but pensioners - and those due to retire next year - can start to plan their finances by following the Triple Lock measurements. The September CPI figure will be published in mid-October, while the wages growth figure is usually released in August.

What is taxed

Guidance on GOV.UK states: “You pay tax if your total annual income adds up to more than your Personal Allowance. Find out about your Personal Allowance and Income Tax rates.

Your total income could include:

• the State Pension you get - Basic or New State Pension
• Additional State Pension
• a private pension (workplace or personal) - you can take some of this tax-free
• earnings from employment or self-employment
• any taxable benefits you get
• any other income, such as money from investments, property or savings

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Check if you have to pay tax on your pension

Before you can check, you will need to know:

• if you have a State Pension or a private pension
• how much State Pension and private pension income you will get this tax year (April 6 to April 5)
• the amount of any other taxable income you’ll get this tax year (for example, from employment or state benefits)

You cannot use this tool if you get:

• any foreign income
• Marriage Allowance
• Blind Person’s Allowance

Use this online tool at GOV.UK to check if you have to pay tax on your pension. The full guide to tax when you get a pension can be found on GOV.UK here.