Will Israel and Hezbollah's Escalating Conflict Lead to a Full-Scale War?

The ongoing exchanges of fire between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah in recent days have sparked growing concerns that the long-time adversaries may be heading towards a full-scale conflict, despite repeated international calls for restraint.

Israeli officials have said they are left with no choice but to respond to Hezbollah, which has been launching near-daily rocket fire that has forced communities near the border with Lebanon to evacuate for almost a year. "Hezbollah’s actions have turned southern Lebanon into a battlefield," an Israeli military official remarked during a briefing on Monday. The primary aim of Israel's current military actions is to "degrade" Hezbollah’s threat, push its fighters away from the border, and destroy infrastructure built by the group’s elite Radwan Force, the official added.

Israeli political analyst Michael Horowitz noted that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is looking to pressure Hezbollah into stopping its cross-border attacks, even in the absence of a ceasefire agreement regarding Gaza. "Israel’s strategy is clear: it wants to gradually increase pressure on Hezbollah, hitting them harder each time, to force them to reconsider their alignment with Gaza," Horowitz said.

Both sides, Horowitz explained, are aware of the dangers of a full-blown war, and it is not necessarily unavoidable. In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a brutal 34-day war that claimed over 1,200 lives in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and around 160 Israelis, primarily soldiers.

"This situation is extremely dangerous, but there’s still a window for diplomacy to avoid the worst-case scenario," Horowitz added.

Retired Colonel Miri Eisen, a senior fellow at Israel’s International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, suggested that Israel views its military response as crucial to reaching any de-escalation. "Hezbollah operates through violence and power, so decisive actions are necessary," Eisen explained, adding that while she wishes there were other ways to handle the situation, no alternative approach has proven effective so far.

While current operations focus mainly on airstrikes, Eisen hinted at the possibility of a ground incursion to ensure Hezbollah cannot launch another attack like Hamas’s in October. "A ground operation could be necessary to push Hezbollah forces away from the border," she said.

Hezbollah’s Response in Lebanon

In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Qassem said the group’s conflict with Israel had entered a "new phase" of "open reckoning" following recent sabotage attacks and airstrikes on its Radwan Force. As Lebanon's health ministry reported that nearly 500 people were killed on Monday—the deadliest day since the 2006 war—a Hezbollah source acknowledged that the situation was becoming increasingly similar to that period.

"Things are escalating to a point similar to what we saw in 2006," the Hezbollah source said.

Amal Saad, a Lebanese researcher specializing in Hezbollah, indicated that while the group feels compelled to retaliate, it is trying to avoid provoking an all-out war. "Hezbollah is likely to respond in a way that remains below the threshold of war," she noted.

Following the killing of Hezbollah’s military commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli strike in Beirut, the group increased its attacks but has so far managed to keep its retaliation controlled. "It’s a kind of calibrated escalation, but one that’s qualitatively different," Saad added.

Despite efforts to avoid a full-scale conflict, the final decision may not lie entirely in Hezbollah's hands. Saad pointed out that Hezbollah is more militarily capable than its ally Hamas and could rely on its experience from the 2006 war. "Hezbollah is extremely effective when it comes to ground warfare and underground offensives, which we saw back in 2006," she said.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has stated that his forces are prepared to confront Israeli troops in southern Lebanon while continuing to fire rockets into northern Israel if Israel launches a ground operation.

A report published by the International Crisis Group on Monday echoed the severity of the situation, warning that the recent escalation "poses significant risks." The report suggested that Hezbollah may soon reach a point where only a large-scale response can halt Israel’s ongoing attacks.

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