The Southwest Monsoon will retreat from parts of West Rajasthan and Kachchh around September 23rd. This marks a significant transition as the monsoon season begins to conclude in these regions, bringing drier conditions. The retreat is facilitated by prevailing weather patterns that support the monsoon’s withdrawal.
Cyclonic Circulations and Formation of Low-Pressure System Over Bay of Bengal: Southwest MonsoonAn east-west trough is extending from the Andhra Pradesh coast to the south coastal Myanmar, with two embedded upper-air cyclonic circulations. One is located over the Westcentral Bay of Bengal, and the other over south coastal Myanmar. The Myanmar system is expected to move west-northwestward. Under the influence of these cyclonic circulations, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the west-central Bay of Bengal in the next 24 hours, bringing potential weather disruptions and rainfall to surrounding regions.
Rainfall Forecast for Southern and Central India: Southwest Monsoon- South Peninsular India: Widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected across Coastal Karnataka, with isolated heavy rainfall over South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and North Interior Karnataka on September 23rd and 24th. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Kerala will also experience scattered heavy rains from September 23rd to 25th.
- Central India: Fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh throughout the week. Madhya Pradesh will experience scattered showers early in the week, followed by more widespread rainfall from September 24th to 27th. Heavy rainfall is likely in these regions, particularly in Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh between September 23rd and 26th.
- East and Northeast India: Widespread rainfall is forecast for Odisha, West Bengal, and Sikkim, while isolated rainfall will affect Bihar and Jharkhand. Assam, Meghalaya, and other northeastern states can expect heavy rainfall through September 29th. Additionally, parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and Gangetic West Bengal will receive heavy downpours during the last week of September.
- West India: Rainfall will continue across most of West India, including isolated heavy to hefty rain over Konkan, Goa, and Madhya Maharashtra between September 23rd and 27th. Gujarat is likely to receive heavy rains between September 25th and 27th.
In summary, while monsoon withdrawal begins in Rajasthan and Kachchh, significant rainfall events will impact southern, central, and northeastern parts of India, driven by cyclonic circulations and low-pressure systems.
Source: India Meteorological Department
