Haryana Exit Polls: Comfortable Win for Congress, BJP's 3rd Term Distant Dream

The Congress is set to form a government in Haryana with a comfortable majority, while the BJP’s hope to form a hattrick government in the state seems distant, according to various exit polls released on Saturday, 5 October.  

Elections to the Haryana Assembly—comprising of a total of 90 seats—concluded at 6 pm on Saturday. A voter turnout of 61 percent was recorded till 5pm, as per the Election Commission of India.

According to the India Today-CVoter survey, which sampled over 13,800 respondents, the Congress is expected to win 50-58 seats, safely crossing the majority mark of 45 seats and forming the government in Haryana. Meanwhile, the BJP is set to win in 20-28 seats as other smaller parties garner 10-16 seats, the survey projected.

In terms of vote share, the Congress is set to pull 44 percent of the votes — up from 28.2 percent in the 2019 assembly elections. The BJP is expected to secure 37 percent of the votes, gaining only marginally from 36.7 percent in the previous election.

Here are the number of seats Congress and BJP are expected to win in Haryana according to various exit polls:

Who Will Be Haryana's Chief Minister?

During the 2019 assembly elections in Haryana, the BJP had won 40 seats, falling short of the majority mark, but had formed the government in alliance with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which had won 10 seats. The Congress had won 31 seats.  

However, in March this year, the BJP-JJP coalition collapsed, and Nayab Singh Saini replaced Manohar Lal Khattar as the chief minister soon after.

According to the India Today-CVoter, only 22 percent of the people surveyed preferred Saini to become the chief minister. At the same time, 31 percent respondents preferred former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda for the post, while 10 percent preferred his son Deepender Hooda for chief minister.

This time around, JJP has formed an alliance with Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) of Chandrashekhar Azad, Dalit leader and Lok Sabha MP from Uttar Pradesh’s Nagina. Meanwhile, Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) has allied with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).  

Their entry may have complicated the political calculations for the Congress, which reportedly pulled 68 percent of Dalit votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP’s voteshare among Dalits halved to 24 percent. The BJP lost five of the ten parliamentary seats to Congress, including those reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC). 

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is also in the fray and contesting on all 90 seats, this time.

Who Got the Caste Equation Right - BJP or Congress?

While the BJP is fighting anti-incumbency as it sets its eyes on a third consecutive term in Haryana, the Congress is hoping to carry forward the momentum of 2024 Lok Sabha elections and form a government in the state after ten years.  

On the one hand, Congress is seen consolidating the Jat vote in the state—reportedly giving one-third of the tickets to Jats, including former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda from Garhi Sampla Kiloi.  

On the other hand, the BJP is trying to consolidate the non-Jat vote—including Brahmins, Baniyas, Punjabis/Khatris, and Rajputs—in the party’s favour.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi held four rallies in the state, attacking the Congress on appeasement politics and for being “anti-Dalit." In response, the Congress cornered the BJP on issues such as jobs, Agniveers, and farmer woes, with Rahul Gandhi pointing out at Haryana having the “highest unemployment” in India.

The wrestler’s protest against BJP leader and Wrestling India Federation’s ex-chief Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh over allegations of sexual harassment has inadvertently become a poll plank with Olympian Vinesh Phogat contesting from Julana seat in Jind, Haryana.  

Ladwa Assembly seat in Kurukshetra district has become significant with Saini’s candidature, while the Uchana Kalan seat will be closely observed with Dushyant Chautala in the fray.  

Results for the Assembly elections will be declared on 8 October.