US President Donald Trump’s frequent accusations that India unfairly benefits from trade with the United States are based on an incomplete picture, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has claimed in a detailed new report. Challenging Trump’s narrative of a large trade deficit, the report argues that when broader economic engagements are considered, India actually fuels significant US profits- what GTRI termed a “hidden surplus".
Trump had claimed on February 13 that the United States suffered a $100 billion trade deficit with India. However, GTRI's analysis places the actual trade deficit for 2024–25 at $44.4 billion, significantly lower than the President's figure.
Additionally, the report highlights a “hidden surplus” in the broader US-India economic relationship. According to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, the United States earns an estimated $80-85 billion annually from India through multiple sectors including education, digital services, financial operations, intellectual property royalties, and defence sales.
"This trade deficit narrative is misleading and incomplete," said Srivastava, quoted by ANI. "These massive earnings don't show up in the narrow goods trade statistics. When you factor them in, the US isn't running a deficit with India at all -- it's sitting on a USD 35-40 billion surplus," he added.
Srivastava further stated that Indian students alone contribute around $25 billion each year to the US education sector. American technology companies generate between $15–20 billion from India’s expanding digital market, while financial firms based in the US earn between $10–15 billion. Additionally, Global Capability Centres operated by US companies in Indian technology hubs bring in another $15–20 billion annually. Other significant earnings arise from US pharmaceutical companies, which make $1.5-2 billion, the automotive sector with $0.8-1.2 billion, the entertainment industry with $1–1.5 billion, and sustained arms and defence exports.
The report advised the Indian government to adopt a confident and assertive position in its ongoing trade talks with Washington. It suggests that negotiators resist inflated deficit claims and instead highlight India’s significant contributions to American economic prosperity. According to the report, any future Free Trade Agreement should reflect the comprehensive and mutually beneficial nature of the bilateral relationship.
Also read: US tells WTO that India has no basis to impose retaliatory duties on 29 American products
These findings come at a critical time, as India and the United States advance towards signing the initial phase of a Bilateral Trade Agreement , expected before July. The negotiations are being led by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, with both sides aiming to strengthen trade ties and ensure a more balanced framework.
A senior-level delegation from the United States is also scheduled to visit India shortly to conduct what might be the concluding discussions regarding the proposed temporary trade deal between both nations, according to various sources cited by PTI.
Read more: India pushes to dodge Trump's 26% tariff as US officials head to Delhi for last-lap trade deal talks
Trump had claimed on February 13 that the United States suffered a $100 billion trade deficit with India. However, GTRI's analysis places the actual trade deficit for 2024–25 at $44.4 billion, significantly lower than the President's figure.
Additionally, the report highlights a “hidden surplus” in the broader US-India economic relationship. According to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, the United States earns an estimated $80-85 billion annually from India through multiple sectors including education, digital services, financial operations, intellectual property royalties, and defence sales.
"This trade deficit narrative is misleading and incomplete," said Srivastava, quoted by ANI. "These massive earnings don't show up in the narrow goods trade statistics. When you factor them in, the US isn't running a deficit with India at all -- it's sitting on a USD 35-40 billion surplus," he added.
Srivastava further stated that Indian students alone contribute around $25 billion each year to the US education sector. American technology companies generate between $15–20 billion from India’s expanding digital market, while financial firms based in the US earn between $10–15 billion. Additionally, Global Capability Centres operated by US companies in Indian technology hubs bring in another $15–20 billion annually. Other significant earnings arise from US pharmaceutical companies, which make $1.5-2 billion, the automotive sector with $0.8-1.2 billion, the entertainment industry with $1–1.5 billion, and sustained arms and defence exports.
The report advised the Indian government to adopt a confident and assertive position in its ongoing trade talks with Washington. It suggests that negotiators resist inflated deficit claims and instead highlight India’s significant contributions to American economic prosperity. According to the report, any future Free Trade Agreement should reflect the comprehensive and mutually beneficial nature of the bilateral relationship.
Also read: US tells WTO that India has no basis to impose retaliatory duties on 29 American products
These findings come at a critical time, as India and the United States advance towards signing the initial phase of a Bilateral Trade Agreement , expected before July. The negotiations are being led by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, with both sides aiming to strengthen trade ties and ensure a more balanced framework.
A senior-level delegation from the United States is also scheduled to visit India shortly to conduct what might be the concluding discussions regarding the proposed temporary trade deal between both nations, according to various sources cited by PTI.
Read more: India pushes to dodge Trump's 26% tariff as US officials head to Delhi for last-lap trade deal talks
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