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India's stand on the Indus Water Treaty marks a significant shift, New Delhi ups the ante on the issue

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NEW DELHI: After issuing a notice to Pakistan for the ‘modification’ of the 64-year-old Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in January last year, India has now gone a step further and called for a ‘review and modification’. Experts and those familiar with the overall water-sharing process said this shows New Delhi’s intent to renegotiate the terms of the water-sharing treaty . They also underlined that India's latest stand marks a significant shift and upping of the ante on the issue.

Significantly, the term ‘review’ is not present in the IWT’s Article XII (3), which states, “the provisions of this treaty may from time to time be modified by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two govts”. The use of ‘review’ in New Delhi’s fresh notice, however, reflects India’s desire to step out of the box, seeking a change of provisions and aligning them with the current ground realities, including the impact of climate change and the country’s need to develop its hydro-power to its fullest potential.

“India’s latest stance on the IWT reflects a pragmatic approach to address the existing and emerging challenges within the Indus Basin. By calling for a ‘review and modification’ of the treaty, India is signalling its intent to update the treaty and inject fresh ideas,” said Uttam Sinha , senior fellow at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA).

He said, “It would also give India an opportunity to re-bargain its position on the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab and their tributaries), especially concerning technological issues regarding dam building and de-sedimentation.”

Under the treaty, the water of Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej and their tributaries) is allocated to India, whereas the country is under obligation to let flow the waters of Western Rivers except for domestic use, agricultural use, and generation of hydro-power.

Sinha, an expert on the Indus basin who has been following the IWT issue for years, said India, with its intent to update the treaty, could take the lead by broadening the debate to include areas like waterways, water wastage, water efficiency, or even setting up a study group to assess socio-economic gains and losses from the Indus basin in the years ahead.

He and other experts cautioned against drawing radical conclusions like India preparing to walk out of the agreement. “It would be incorrect to assume that India’s latest move aims to revoke or abrogate the treaty. On the contrary, India respects the treaty and is committed to addressing concerns and protecting its interests through the treaty’s provisions,” said Sinha.

He also underlined that India's next step would depend on Pakistan's response, as it is not clear whether Islamabad is willing to come to the table and discuss the modification of the treaty.

India issued the notice to Pakistan on August 30, seeking ‘review and modification’ of the IWT under Article XII (3). This development was, however, made public only on Wednesday.

Experts pointed out that Article XII of the IWT must be considered along with Article VII (Future Cooperation), wherein the two parties recognise that they have a common interest in the optimum development of the rivers, and, to that end, they declare their intention to co-operate, by mutual agreement, to the fullest possible extent.
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