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'More people flying direct to & from India now than pre-Covid 2019': OAG

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NEW DELHI: More people are now flying direct between India and rest of the world than ever before. The massive increase in international flights by both IndiGo and Tata’s Air India Group , apart from new player Akasa and new international airlines flying to the country, has changed the nature of traffic with more passengers now travelling on nonstops rather than making one or two stops at a hub airport, says UK-based air consultancy firm OAG while comparing pre-Covid 2019 (when AI was still a cash-starved PSU) with 2023 (when AI was back with the founder group). In 2023, India’s international air traffic was about 6.5 crore, only 6 lakh less than 2019 numbers.

About “3.7 crore passengers made a nonstop trip in 2023, 20 lakh more than in 2019. Indirect passengers dropped by 25 lakh to 2.7 crore in the same period. This equates to a shift from 54% of passengers travelling direct to 57%,” OAG says.

Not only did more people fly direct to and from India, 10 lakh passengers used hubs in India for transfers. For example, someone travelling between Kathmandu and New York via Delhi. Also with many countries like Vietnam and Indonesia now having direct flights to and from India, there's no longer a need to fly one-stop unless someone opts for the latter.

“An analysis of which hubs lost traffic from 2019 to 2023 shows Middle Eastern hubs lost 10 lakh indirect passengers. Other hubs lost 28 lakh indirect passengers and in fact Indian hubs gained 10 lakh indirect passengers,” OAG says. In these four years, Indian airlines added 52 new international routes .

Since 2014, the Modi govt has been very conservative with increasing bilaterals (flying rights) with foreign countries with the twin objective of protecting desi airlines and supporting the creation of global hubs in the country. Historically travelling between India and the rest of the world has largely happened via nearby hubs like those in the Gulf or Southeast Asia. The last decade’s move is paying off.

OAG estimates India’s international airline capacity was 73 lakh seats in April 2024, 17% more than 62 lakh in the same month four five years ago. In the last decade, India’s international capacity has grown by an average of 4.5% each year from a base of 47 lakh seats in April 2014.

“However, what has not changed is the Middle East region’s dominance of India’s international capacity. In April 2014, this region accounted for 48%. In April 2024, that figure increased to 50%,” it says. However, this does not mean more people are flying in and out of India through the Middle East. With about 36 lakh Indians in the UAE and 26 lakh in Saudi Arabia, there is an increase in point to point traffic too between India and these two places.

India is now open to relooking at bilaterals with some countries where airlines of both sides are now operating to peak allowed capacity. Dubai, for instance, has no bilaterals remaining, Akasa could not get bilaterals for Dubai as there were none remaining for it.

As IndiGo and AI Group grow in coming years along with others like Akasa, the share of Indian carriers in international travel to and from India will grow.

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